Help CenterIn July 2024, ERCOT made a substantial revision to its long-term load forecast, increasing expected future demand. This change is now reflected in our High Load Growth Sensitivity.
To address the increased load, we’ve also updated our assumptions for renewable capacity growth, with figures derived from ERCOT’s interconnection queue. Our model assumes a 30% success rate for these projects reaching interconnection, which influences future capacity projections.
Summary Table:
| Peak Load | Avg Hourly Load | Solar | Wind | BESS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 90.5 | 62.4 | 31.6 | 41.3 | 17.6 |
| 2026 | 106.4 | 74.6 | 46.6 | 42.9 | 34.8 |
| 2027 | 121.1 | 90.3 | 58.6 | 44.8 | 46.4 |
| 2028 | 137.3 | 106.1 | 62.3 | 45.9 | 48.5 |
| 2029 | 140.9 | 114.8 | 63.2 | 46.6 | 48.7 |
| 2030 | 148.0 | 120.8 | 64.7 | 47.6 | 48.8 |
| 2031 | 149.8 | 123.2 | 66.2 | 48.8 | 48.8 |
| 2032 | 151.5 | 124.4 | 67.7 | 49.0 | 48.8 |
| 2033 | 153.2 | 125.7 | 69.2 | 49.5 | 48.8 |
RenewaFi utilizes publicly available datasets to maintain transparency and objectivity. We do not make fundamental assumptions about net load trends. Instead, the Price Tracker allows originators to analyze how different perspectives on net load drivers—such as load growth and renewable penetration—impact pricing dynamics in the market.
Links:
ERCOT Interconnection Queue Reports: https://www.ercot.com/mp/data-products/data-product-details?id=PG7-200-ER
ERCOT Long Term Load Forecast: https://www.ercot.com/gridinfo/load/forecast