Help CenterRenewaFi’s Low Load Growth sensitivity sources assumptions from ERCOT and the EIA forecasts for load and renewable capacity, respectively. We use these publicly available datasets to ensure that the outcomes of our model are entirely objective. RenewaFi does not take a fundamental position on net load. Rather, the purpose of the Price Tracker is to empower originators to understand how different fundamental positions on net load (i.e. load growth and renewables penetration) impact pricing.
ERCOT forecasts that annual load and peak load will continue to increase YoY by roughly 2-3%. It provides an hourly load forecast for the next 8 years, which we incorporate into our assumptions
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EIA provides two cases for the expansion of renewables capacity in ERCOT, reflecting the outcomes of a “high cost” and “low cost” to build new renewables facilities. We assume the midpoint between those two cases to be the most realistic and objective outcome. The midpoint forecasts an average 5.3% growth YoY in solar and 2.8% YoY in wind.
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Summary Table:
| Year | Peak Load | Average Hourly Load | Solar Capacity | Wind Capacity |
| 2024 | 82.2 | 53.8 | 30.3 | 38.8 |
| 2025 | 83.3 | 55.8 | 30.3 | 39.3 |
| 2026 | 84.2 | 57.7 | 30.3 | 39.3 |
| 2027 | 85.0 | 59.6 | 33.9 | 39.3 |
| 2028 | 86.6 | 61.2 | 36.2 | 39.3 |
| 2029 | 88.1 | 62.7 | 37.5 | 41.5 |
| 2030 | 90.3 | 64.2 | 39.2 | 46.6 |
| 2031 | 92.1 | 65.5 | 41.3 | 48.8 |
| 2032 | 93.8 | 66.8 | 44.2 | 49.0 |
| 2033 | 95.6 | 68.0 | 48.1 | 49.5 |
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